In 1985, after rigorously studying the market tops listed above,
an expert system based upon valuation, monetary, and momentum variables
was developed to proactively detect a potential waterfall decline.
The model was named after the Big Kahuna waterfall on the Big island of Hawaii,
not only for the magnitude of the falls,
but also the two step characteristic of the precipitious decline.

Chart courtesy of Prophet.net

While running in real-time mode, the Big Kahuna Model has detected
tops in 1987, 1990, 1998, and 2007 on the specific dates listed below.

August 24, 1987        July 16, 1990        July 17, 1998        July 19, 2007

Chart courtesy of Prophet.net

The Model did not give a signal between 2000 and 2002, since it was developed
to detect sharp declines (approximately 6 weeks in duration)
of a magnitude of 20% or more within the context of a bull market.

An interesting conclusion from the lack of a signal between 2000 and 2002
is that the U.S. equity market was in a bear market from 2000 to 2003.